Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong

Recorded live from the beach at Future Proof in Miami, this special episode of Facts vs Feelings brings Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to the main stage for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro, and the forces driving today’s volatility.

Against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting news cycle, Ryan and Sonu break down the dramatic swings in oil prices, the implications of geopolitical tensions for global markets, and what it all means for investors navigating an environment of inflationary growth. They also discuss why they remain constructive on equities despite recent volatility, how global market breadth is expanding beyond the U.S., and the portfolio positioning they believe makes sense in the current environment.

From Fed policy and inflation trends to the strength of the labor market and signals from credit markets, the discussion highlights the difference between headline-driven fears and the underlying data shaping the economic outlook. Ryan and Sonu also explore where their outlook could be wrong, including risks tied to gold, small caps, and shifts in monetary policy.

Key Takeaways

• Oil volatility matters: Large swings in energy prices can ripple through inflation, global trade, and market sentiment
• Inflation may remain sticky: Core inflation near 3 percent could limit how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts rates
• Global markets are broadening: International equities have been contributing meaningfully to returns alongside U.S. stocks
• Labor markets remain resilient: Low layoffs and steady income growth continue supporting the economy
• Portfolio diversification still matters: Exposure across global equities, gold, and selective sector positioning may help navigate uncertainty

Jump to:

0:00 — Opening and Live Show Setup

1:18 — Live from Miami!

3:20 — Oil Market Whiplash and Why It Matters

6:25 — Portfolio Positioning: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds

9:05 — Signs of a Global Bull Market

11:20 — Midterm Year Volatility and Market Corrections

13:55 — The Fed, Inflation, and the Labor Market

17:40 — How Carson Research Supports Advisors

19:40 — Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong

23:20 — Signals from Tech, Staples, Credit, and Crypto

28:40 — CPI, PCE, and Final Thoughts

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com