The Fed's Soft Landing Could Lead to a Recession

Economists look to the residential housing market as a primary indicator of whether a recession is coming, and home transaction and construction data began showing positive signs that the housing downturn may have reached a bottom in February. Many believe we’ve dodged a severe recession, and some are even optimistic that the Fed will achieve the soft landing the central bank was hoping for—an outcome of stabilized inflation without a significant rise in unemployment. 

Consumer spending has begun to plateau, and The Fed has signaled that it will likely put future rate hikes on hold while keeping an eye on inflation. The rate hikes that began last March may finally be coming to a close. Meanwhile, signs have pointed to a recovery in the housing cycle. After a contraction in selling activity, a slowdown in residential development, and falling home prices, things started to turn around in February. 

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