Does Kevin Warsh Explain the Drop?

The Last Trade: Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg breaks down bitcoin's brutal drawdown, why 94% of ETF investors aren't selling, the "silent IPO" of OG holders, and the macro case for what comes next.

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Eric Balchunas returns to The Last Trade to put bitcoin's 45% drawdown in perspective. Drawing on his deep expertise in ETF flows and investor behavior, Eric makes the case that this correction — while painful — is completely normal. With 94% of bitcoin ETF assets still intact and the fundamental debasement thesis unchanged, the real story may be less about what's going wrong and more about the price investors pay for outsized long-term returns.

The conversation covers the "silent IPO" of OG holders taking profits, why ETF investors are the smart money in this cycle, the Kevin Warsh Fed chair implications, and why short-term narratives drawn from a year of data are "so dumb." Eric also shares what's exciting him in the broader ETF space — including the race to get SpaceX and other private companies into exchange-traded wrappers.

🧠 Chapters

02:07 — Intro & Welcome Back Eric Balchunas

04:16 — "Bitcoin Is Rocky Balboa" & Contextualizing Drawdowns

10:18 — Volatility Is the Cost of Admission

13:30 — The Silent IPO: OGs Selling & Why That's OK

23:41 — Kevin Warsh, the Fed & the Trump Put

34:58 — Understanding the Problem to Understand Bitcoin

38:59 — Why 94% of ETF Investors Aren't Selling

45:41 — Value Investing Wisdom & Human Psychology

49:51 — Crypto Contagion, Tokenization & Bitcoin's Separate Lane

55:35 — Vanguard vs. BlackRock & the Race for Private Markets

1:06:00 — Closing Thoughts, Outro & Disclaimer

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