Tornado Trends and Observation Bias

North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year’s forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and politicized climate narratives.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:40) - Forecast Scorecard

(04:02) - Federal cuts & the National Weather Service

(06:52) - AI in meteorology

(09:18) - Weather hype, clickbait, and short public memory

(13:17) - 2026: La Niña fading, El Niño on deck

(14:39) - Atlantic hurricane outlook for 2026 (Gulf Coast focus)

(19:32) - Heartland & farm belt forecast

(22:30) - West vs. Rockies

(24:30) - Global Ag weather

(27:44) - Black Sea outlook

(29:34) - 1.5°C Threshold: What the Recent Record Heat Means

(34:26) - Satellites vs. Tide Gauges

(35:48) - Glaciers, Natural Cycles & Past Warm Periods

(37:25) - Extreme Weather Claims

(40:09) - Tornado Trends & the Problem of Short Data Windows

(42:41) - What Actually Keeps Daryl Up at Night

(44:50) - Depoliticizing Climate Talk

(49:12) - India & the Monsoon

(52:22) - Trusted Data Sources, Raw Data, and “Weather Rhymes”

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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