What's Going on With Manufacturing Surveys?

We think manufacturing surveys are headed for mild recessionary territory sometime in the spring. Our models on corporate profits point to something like a 10 to 12, maybe 13% decline next year compared to this year. Most of the valuation indicators we look at are back to pre-COVID levels but certainly not at the distressed levels of 2009 or even 2012. We're much closer to the end than the beginning of some of these repricings.