CBO 2026–2036 Deficit Outlook

• John walks through the CBO’s 2026–2036 outlook showing persistent deficits and a rising debt-to-GDP “hockey stick” trajectory
• The hosts argue the “gradual print + occasional big print” pattern is structurally embedded in fiat incentives and political constraints
• Supreme Court strikes down key Trump tariffs (reciprocal “Liberation Day” and fentanyl-related duties), framed as a separation-of-powers moment
• Market reaction appears muted and “wait-and-see,” with uncertainty over how the administration may reassert tariffs via other authorities
• A Bloomberg/EY-style projection is cited: debt potentially reaching ~$64T by 2036 with interest costs swelling materially
• Bitcoin ETFs: despite a drawdown from peak cumulative inflows, the broader flow base suggests many holders treat ETF exposure as long-term allocation
• 13F chatter: a new Hong Kong entity holding substantial IBIT is floated as possible capital-flight behavior, with caution that it could also be speculative positioning
• Quick hits: a congressman discloses additional Bitcoin purchases; Goldman CEO David Solomon (“DJ D-Sol”) mentions owning a small amount of BTC
• A Fed voice (Neel Kashkari) dismisses crypto cross-border narratives; hosts rebut that “no country will abandon monetary policy” is exactly why Bitcoin exists
• Crypto credit stress: BlockFills halting withdrawals is flagged as potential post-drawdown plumbing fallout and a reminder of leverage unwind dynamics

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