Market timing myth for conversions

“I’m Not Paying for Oil—I’m Protecting the Engine” There’s a moment in our house where Lucas will look at me—calm as can be—and say, “Rachel… I’m not paying for oil. I’m protecting the engine.” And every time he says it, it reminds me of how people think about taxes. https://www.youtube.com/live/1bgZWYxu3jo Because an oil change feels annoying. It’s inconvenient. It’s not “fun money.” It’s something you can easily delay—especially when life is full. But what Lucas understands is what most families don’t realize until it’s painful: small, responsible decisions today protect what you’ve built tomorrow. That’s exactly what a Roth conversion strategy is. Not a trendy tactic. Not clickbait. Not “always do this” or “never do this.” It’s stewardship. And it’s one of the most misunderstood decisions families make—because it’s not just about your tax bracket this year. It’s about your lifetime taxes… and in many cases, your kids’ taxes too. “I’m Not Paying for Oil—I’m Protecting the Engine”A Long-Range Roth Conversion StrategyRoth Conversion Strategy: Start With the Right Lens (Not a Hot Take)What Is a Roth Conversion?Why Roth Conversions Are Everywhere Right NowRoth Conversion and Future Tax Rates: The Real Issue Is ControlShould I Do a Roth Conversion? When It Makes Sense1) You’re trying to reduce lifetime taxes (not just this year’s taxes)2) You have high tax-deferred balances and don’t expect to spend them down3) You have a window of lower-income years4) Your goal is tax diversification and retirement flexibilityRoth Conversion Mistakes to AvoidMistake #1: Ignoring IRMAA (Medicare Premium Surcharges)Mistake #2: Treating Roth conversions as staticMistake #3: Trying to time the market perfectlyHow Does a Roth Conversion Affect Your Heirs?Roth Conversion Estate Planning Strategy: When Roth Isn’t the End GameReframe the Goal: Not “Highest Return,” but “Best Outcome After Taxes”What This Roth Conversion Strategy Changes for Your FamilyListen to the Full Roth Conversion Strategy EpisodeBook A Strategy CallFAQWhat is a Roth conversion strategy?When does a Roth conversion make sense?What are the downsides of a Roth conversion?Is it better to do Roth conversions when the market is down?How do I avoid Roth conversion mistakes? A Long-Range Roth Conversion Strategy In this blog (and podcast), Bruce Wehner and I unpack Roth conversions the way we believe every financial decision should be unpacked: with a long-range view, a clear understanding of tradeoffs, and a focus on control. If you’re asking questions like: Should I do a Roth conversion? When does a Roth conversion make sense? What are the downsides of a Roth conversion? How does a Roth conversion affect my Medicare premiums (IRMAA)? How does the SECURE Act change inherited IRA taxes for my heirs? …this article is for you. You’ll learn what a Roth conversion is, why people are talking about it more right now, and the biggest blind spots that can cost families real money—especially under the SECURE Act’s inheritance rules. We’ll also show you why this isn’t a one-variable decision. The best Roth conversion planning is dynamic and integrated—because taxes, Medicare premiums, market timing, and estate planning all collide here. Roth Conversion Strategy: Start With the Right Lens (Not a Hot Take) Bruce opened our conversation with something that matters: There is no such thing as universal Roth conversion advice. If someone on social media tells you, “Always do a Roth conversion,” they’re selling certainty—not stewardship. And if someone tells you, “Never do a Roth conversion,” they’re doing the same thing in reverse. A real Roth conversion strategy requires your full financial picture. And not just your picture. It often requires understanding your heirs’ tax picture, too. Because what happens after you’re gone is part of the strategy—not an afterthought. If your goal is to pay the least amount of taxes over your lifetime and your family’s lifetime, then this is a conversation worth slowing down for. What Is a Roth Conversion? A Roth conversion is when you move money from a tax-deferred account (like a Traditional IRA) into a Roth IRA. Here’s the simple trade: With a Traditional IRA, you get a tax break today, but you pay taxes later when you withdraw. With a Roth IRA, you pay taxes now, and then your money can grow tax-free, and you can access qualified withdrawals tax-free. So the core question isn’t “Do I like Roths?” The core question is: Do I want to pay the tax now or later—and what does that choice do to my lifetime tax bill and my heirs’ tax burden? This is why we call it Roth conversion planning—because the conversion itself is just a move. The strategy is the plan around it. Why Roth Conversions Are Everywhere Right Now If you’ve noticed the sudden spike in Roth conversion content, you’re not imagining it. Yes, people are thinking about inflation and national debt. But the bigger driver is a policy change that quietly shifted the math for families: The SECURE Act and the 10-Year Rule The SECURE Act changed how inherited IRAs work for most non-spouse beneficiaries. Before the SECURE Act, many beneficiaries could “stretch” distributions over their lifetime. That often meant smaller annual distributions and a more manageable tax impact. Now, in many cases, heirs must empty an inherited IRA within 10 years. That means more money forced out over a shorter time window, often during your child’s peak earning years—when they’re already in higher tax brackets. This is why the question “How does a Roth conversion affect your heirs?” is not a niche question. It’s central. Roth Conversion and Future Tax Rates: The Real Issue Is Control One of Bruce’s strongest points was this: You can try to predict future tax rates… but the bigger issue is control. Tax policy changes. Brackets change. Deductions change. Rules change. And governments are always solving for revenue. So instead of pretending we can forecast everything perfectly, we ask: How do we increase your control over when and how taxes are paid? That’s what a tax diversification retirement strategy is about: having money in different “tax buckets” so you can choose how you pull income in retirement. Because a family with options has leverage. A family with only tax-deferred money has constraints. Should I Do a Roth Conversion? When It Makes Sense Let’s bring it down to practical guidance. A Roth conversion can make sense when: 1) You’re trying to reduce lifetime taxes (not just this year’s taxes) If you’re doing a Roth conversion to reduce lifetime taxes, you’re looking at: your expected retirement income your required minimum distributions (RMDs) your spouse’s situation your heirs’ likely income levels future tax law uncertainty This is not a “this year only” decision. It’s long-range strategy. 2) You have high tax-deferred balances and don’t expect to spend them down Bruce sees this often with high net worth families. They have significant IRA/401(k) balances, but they live on cash flow from businesses, real estate, or other income sources. So the tax-deferred accounts are likely to be inherited—not consumed. That’s when the SECURE Act 10-year rule becomes a real problem for adult children. 3) You have a window of lower income years Many families have lower income years: early retirement before Social Security a gap between selling a business and reinvesting proceeds years with unusually high deductions These windows can be ideal for Roth conversion planning, because you can “fill up” lower tax brackets strategically. 4) Your goal is tax diversification and retirement flexibility A Roth IRA can be a powerful tool for controlling adjusted gross income in retirement—especially when it comes to Medicare premiums and other phaseouts. But that leads to a major pitfall… Roth Conversion Mistakes to Avoid Mistake #1: Ignoring IRMAA (Medicare Premium Surcharges) If you’re near Medicare age, this is huge. A Roth conversion increases your adjusted gross income (AGI). Higher AGI can trigger IRMAA—Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount. In plain language:the more income you show, the more you can pay for Medicare Part B and Part D premiums. Bruce shared how common it is for people (and even many advisors) to miss this entirely. And here’s the kicker: IRMAA is based on a two-year lookback so a conversion today can impact Medicare premiums two years from now This doesn’t mean “don’t convert.”It means: run the math. Because sometimes the tax savings over your lifetime is still worth it. But you should know what you’re trading. Mistake #2: Treating Roth conversions as static Bruce said it well: this can’t be a static strategy. It must be dynamic. He gave an example of a client who retired, started a multi-year Roth conversion plan, and then unexpectedly received a consulting contract paying several hundred thousand dollars. That income changed everything. Their conversion strategy had to be adjusted immediately—because the tax brackets, Medicare implications, and intended “conversion window” shifted. The point is simple: A Roth conversion strategy needs ongoing review. Mistake #3: Trying to time the market perfectly Yes, it can be advantageous to convert when markets are down. But most families wait for the perfect moment… and miss years of opportunity. Bruce’s guidance is the steady kind of wisdom we live by: Control what you can control. Don’t pretend you have a crystal ball. A good strategy often beats “perfect timing.” And in some cases, converting a depressed holding into a Roth can be a smart move—because future growth happens inside the Roth structure.