Markets have been chaotic over the past few sessions, so we pivot to a mostly-news episode to unpack what’s really driving the volatility.
We start with “SaaSmageddon” — the sharp selloff across software stocks following rapid advances in AI, including Claude’s new capabilities. We discuss why investors are suddenly questioning data-driven moats, seat-based subscription models, and whether traditional SaaS businesses can defend their margins in a world where AI agents can replace large portions of knowledge work.
From there, we connect the dots to private credit and private equity. With software making up a major portion of many private portfolios, we explore the growing risks around payment-in-kind lending, potential default cycles, and why business development companies (BDCs) could be the next pressure point if AI disruption accelerates.
We also cover the historic gold and silver flush — a classic leveraged shakeout driven by forced liquidations, stop-loss cascades, and thin liquidity — and why ETF volumes exploded during the move. Finally, we touch on broader market weakness, AMD’s earnings reaction, and how Bitcoin continues to trade like a high-beta risk asset.
Tickers of Stocks Discussed: TRI.TO, ADBE, CRM, SHOP.TO, SPGI, MCO, ARCC, OWL, OBDC, BXSL, MAIN, FSK, SLV, GLD, SPY, AMD
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