Biggest Constraint: Better Forecasting

Today we had the unique opportunity to record COBT live from the Gulf Coast Power Association’s (GCPA) Annual Spring Conference in Houston. Joining us on stage were Mary Anne Brelinsky, President and Chief Commercial Officer of Alpha Generation, and Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. We were thrilled to explore the current power landscape with Sean and Mary Anne.
 
In our conversation, we examine the growing complexity of operating in today’s power markets, with Mary Anne explaining how managing a multi-ISO portfolio requires constant coordination across operations, commercial teams, and real-time decision-making in the face of shifting weather patterns, fuel volatility, and evolving regulations. She emphasizes that forecasting remains one of the industry’s biggest challenges, as decisions are made daily with imperfect information and an increasingly dynamic grid where supply and demand must be balanced in real time. Sean builds on these themes by discussing how Amperon is using AI and machine learning to improve forecasting accuracy, streamline workflows, and help customers navigate volatility, noting that the sheer volume of data has made traditional approaches obsolete. We cover the rapid acceleration in power demand driven by AI, data centers, and broader electrification trends, with Sean highlighting that while not all projected load will materialize, the directional shift is real and significant.
 
Mary Anne emphasizes the growing importance of reliability, resilience, and cybersecurity, noting that as more critical infrastructure becomes electrified, the stakes for keeping the grid secure and operational continue to rise. We discuss how the industry’s focus has shifted from improving efficiency to increasing output, with Mary Anne highlighting efforts to expand capacity at existing plants as one of the fastest and most practical solutions. Sean adds that capital is now flowing back into the power sector in a meaningful way, describing this as a structural turning point where electricity is finally being recognized as foundational to economic growth. We touch on increasing public and political attention on power markets, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the growing role of demand-side and behind-the-meter solutions in managing peak load. We close on the idea that while this may be one of the most challenging periods the industry has faced, it is also one of the most exciting, given the scale of opportunity and the critical role power will play in shaping the future.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by emphasizing that markets are extremely volatile and remain sharply focused on President Trump’s Iran deadline (Tuesday evening) and his threat to bomb strategic targets, including bridges and electric generation assets. From a bond market perspective, the 10-year yield was trading at ~4.3%, with bonds taking their cue from developments in the Iran war and the associated commodity price fallout. Bond investors appear to be largely ignoring upcoming economic reports, including March CPI, and are instead trying to better understand what the Iran war could mean for long-term inflation. From an oil market perspective, WTI closed at ~$110/bbl, up ~$8/bbl over the last five trading days. Seaborne barrels appear to be a better representative of the true “physical” oil market, with Dated Brent surging to over $140/bbl this week. Oil traders seem focused on how high prices might rise with further escalation, while long-term investors appear more focused on when and how far oil prices might plunge once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up ~3.5% over the last week and appears to be pricing in some modest optimism for an off-ramp in the Iran war. Energy, however, was the worst-performing sector over the same period, down ~3.5%, with most Energy subsectors down 1% to 4%. On a YTD basis, though, Energy remains by far the best-performing S&P sec