The New Rules
Geopolitical Cousins
Probability of Major US–Iran Confrontation
Marko and Jacob quantify disagreement: Marko sees lower war risk, Jacob assigns higher odds and explains escalation triggers.
The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Current Events
(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis
(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict
(38:45) - Germany's Push for a Two-Speed Europe
(49:04) - The Strategic Importance of Spain
(49:42) - Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe
(53:05) - Hungary and Serbia's Political Dynamics
(55:04) - Debunking Demographic Myths
(01:01:14) - The Decline of the United Nations
(01:07:29) - Japan's Political and Economic Future
(01:26:22) - The Role of the Federal Reserve
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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