US engagement in South Caucasus via J.D. Vance visit

Day 1,448.

Today, we assess where things stand after mixed messaging has left Kyiv, Moscow and Western capitals confused over whether President Zelensky will use the fourth anniversary of Russia’s  invasion to announce presidential elections or a referendum on a possible peace deal. We report on Russia’s fury over the reported Starlink switch-off, a communications crisis compounded by the Kremlin’s tightening restrictions on Telegram, and continue to follow the Olympic controversy surrounding Ukraine’s so-called “Helmet of Memory”. Later, we hear the latest analysis from our Russia-watcher.

Contributors

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Adélie Pojzman-Pontay (Journalist and Producer). @adeliepjz on X.

James Kilner (Foreign Analyst). @jkjourno on X.

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Each week, Dom Nicholls and Francis Dearnley answer your questions, provide recommended reading, and give exclusive analysis and behind-the-scenes insights – plus maps of the frontlines and diagrams of weapons to complement our daily reporting. It’s free for everyone, including non-subscribers.

CONTENT REFERENCED:

Zelensky plans presidential elections and peace deal referendum (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/11/zelensky-presidential-elections-peace-deal-referendum/ 

Ukrainian athletes defy IOC and double down in helmet protest against Russia (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/winter-olympics/2026/02/09/ukrainian-athlete-vladyslav-heraskevych-anti-russian-helmet/

Behind the Guns: Western Tools, Russian Firepower (Front Intelligence):

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/behind-the-guns-western-tools-russian

Chris O Starlink thread on X:

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2021280155713294590?s=20

Zelensky won't announce elections on war anniversary amid talks of US-driven timeline, source says (Kyiv Independent):

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-wont-announce-elections-on-invasion-anniversary/

Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal (Financial Times):

https://www.ft.com/content/50d3d86b-2d2a-4d06-845e-a4e089382cad

Elections in Ukraine — a guide for beginners (and US Presidents) (Kyiv Independent):

https://kyivindependent.com/a-beginners-guide-to-elections-in-ukraine-also-suitable-for-us-presidents/

The Belarusian woman at the center of Epstein’s final days (Kyiv Independent):

https://kyivindependent.com/the-belarusian-woman-at-the-center-of-epsteins-final-days/?mc_cid=a5562b6d52&mc_eid=4a5b852913

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