Iranian Leadership and Future Risks

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump on Monday said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge. Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. The US Navy will escort tankers out of the Middle East to maintain a steady oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, he added. The effective closure of the strait, vital to the world’s flow of petroleum and to container shipping, has caused oil and natural gas prices to soar, and stoked fears of inflation. Brent crude, having climbed to almost $120 a barrel early Monday, is back down to $91.50, but is still up more than 50% this year on the US-Iran tensions. There’s as yet little sign Hormuz can be opened quickly, with Iran continuing to retaliate with drone and missile strikes across the region.
2) Stocks rose and crude oil fell as President Trump signaled the Iran war may be nearing an end, helping boost sentiment after Monday’s selloff in risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 3.1%, with technology shares leading gains. European stocks were also set to advance with contracts indicating a 1.4% jump at the open. However, equity-index futures for the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.2%, indicating the recovery that started on Wall Street on Monday may be running out of steam. The rebound in sentiment for markets came as Trump said the war with Iran would be resolved “very soon.” Even so, from the UAE to Bahrain to Kuwait, several Middle Eastern countries announced missile threats, sounded sirens or intercepted drones on Tuesday. Trump said he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week.
3) Kevin Warsh will meet with senators this week as he seeks their approval to become chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to three people familiar with the plans. The customary meetings with senators before his expected hearing mark the next stage in Warsh’s quest to replace Jerome Powell as the head of the national monetary system. One of the senators on Warsh’s schedule is Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), according to two of the people. Tillis has said he likes Warsh as a potential chairman but opposes moving the nomination until the Justice Department halts its investigation of into the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion renovation of its headquarters. Tillis has warned the probe amounts to inappropriate pressure on Powell to lower interest rates. Trump formally nominated Warsh last week in hopes of replacing Powell before the incumbent’s term expires May 15. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he expects Warsh to get a hearing, notwithstanding Tillis’s blockade.

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