The Fed's Decision to Pause Now With Rate Hikes Later This Year

I think the Fed is a little bit spooked that they haven't seen the effect that they wanted to necessarily in the economy yet. They probably are worried that monotonic interest rates act in long and variable lags. The only thing that's holding up the economy from being in recession, like declared a recession, is that we fudge the numbers on labor. We would have been in recession a long time. Not a depression like recession, not a 1929, 30, not a 1983, but a 2001 mild shallow recession.

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