Military Risks in the Strait of Hormuz

Recorded 3-18-26

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In this episode of Parallax Views, retired U.S. diplomat Patrick N. Theros returns to examine what he sees as a catastrophic turning point in American foreign policy: the Trump administration’s decision to wage war with Iran. A career Foreign Service officer who served across the Middle East—including as U.S. Ambassador to Qatar and as a political advisor to U.S. Central Command—Theros brings decades of regional expertise to a sobering assessment of the conflict and its potential consequences.

Theros argues that the longer the United States remains entangled in this war, the more severe the economic and geopolitical fallout will become. From his perspective, even an imperfect, face-saving exit would be preferable to a prolonged escalation. He also suggests that Trump has been influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in pursuing this course, raising concerns about external pressures shaping U.S. policy. In a striking reflection of the current political moment, Theros describes a “Twilight Zone” dynamic in which he finds himself agreeing—at least on this issue—with figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Drawing on his experience in the region, Theros challenges simplistic narratives about Iran, rejecting the idea that it is a “failing petro-state” and instead emphasizing the resilience of its revolutionary system despite decades of sanctions. The discussion also explores how distorted perceptions, the complexities of the Iranian diaspora vs. the population on the ground in Iran, and enduring currents of Orientalism continue to undermine sound U.S. policymaking.

A key historical parallel in the conversation, albeit only briefly covered, is the Iraq War and the role of controversial exile figure Ahmed Chalabi. Theros recounts meeting Chalabi in Jordan and coming away deeply skeptical of him—a judgment that history would largely vindicate. Chalabi, later convicted of bank fraud in Jordan and widely criticized as a fabricator of intelligence, played a central role in promoting false claims about weapons of mass destruction that helped justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Many critics would later describe him as a “conman” who misled policymakers and the public in the run-up to war. Theros believes something similar may be at play with the hoisting up of Reza Pahlavi, Iran's exiled monarchic son, as a possible "transitional" figure/leader of a post-Islamic Republic Iran.

The episode also offers a comparative analysis of the Iraq and Iran wars. While both conflicts are shaped by flawed assumptions and ideological pressures, Theros argues that the current Iran war may be even more dangerous. The Bush administration, however misguided, at least operated with a defined (if deeply flawed) strategic framework for regime change in Iraq. By contrast, the present conflict appears to lack any coherent long-term plan, increasing the risks of escalation, economic disruption, and unintended consequences across the region.

All this and more on the latest edition of Parallax Views.