Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.
This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.
We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check
07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce
11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?
14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?
19:09 AI Compute Still Leads
28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)
30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?
34:05 China The New Bond Haven?
38:13 Best Trades in This Regime
44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation
49:50 Buy Non-US Again?
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
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› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing
SPONSORS
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DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
