SI399: AI, Inflation and the Portfolio That Refuses to Sit Still ft. Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged
Fiscal Impulses and the Risk of Fiscal Dominance
Alan explains how both AI and energy shocks push fiscal spending and raise the probability of fiscal dominance risks.
Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged
00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series
01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends
06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions
09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure
13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers
16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks
26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes
37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk
46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort
51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities?
56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund
01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today
01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview
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