Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.
The fledgling ceasefire between the US and Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other, is holding. Even before it went into effect, a pointed debate began over who won, and whether US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu achieved what they set out to accomplish 41 days ago.
John Spencer, chair of war studies at the Madison Policy Forum, says that it is way too early to determine the outcome of the war, as it is impossible to know what the outcome will be. Negotiations on a long-term settlement have not even begun yet.
Moreover, Spencer argues, wars should be judged based on the stated goals of the campaign. Both Trump and Netanyahu made clear on multiple occasions that, though they would love to see the regime in Tehran fall, regime change is not a goal of the campaign.
And, he says, there is no guarantee that the regime survives. It often takes time for the public to rise up and topple oppressive rulers.
Spencer also notes that Israel is clearly stronger than it was on October 6, 2023, and Iran and its axis are much weaker.
As for the Strait of Hormuz, which emerged as a central factor in the war, Spencer does not doubt that the US spent plenty of time and resources planning for the possibility that Iran would close the waterway. He recalls war-gaming such a scenario 15 years ago as a US officer, and stresses that there is a permanent task force in the Pentagon to think about keeping the Strait open.
There are plenty of possible reasons for the US to decide not to force Hormuz open at this point, including global markets, diplomatic openings, and the potential costs of an operation.
Spencer says that in his eyes, Iran's strategy failed, in that it validated all the fears about it in the region, and is likely to push Arab states further into the arms of the US and its regional alliance.
Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.
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