AI productivity, bank lending, and growth

Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could be the next macro frontier. Enjoy!

__

Follow Eric: https://x.com/ericwallerstein

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://x.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

__

Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here:

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:48) Eric's Wild Year At the Fed

(07:26) Tariffs And The Role of the Dollar

(14:15) Iran War Market Fallout

(19:46) The Energy Shock vs Growth & Rates

(24:55) Unpacking The "Donroe Doctrine"

(31:29) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham)

(33:12) Buying The Americas

(35:56) Fixing The Fed Balance Sheet

(40:29) Repairing Repo

(43:23) The Coming Warsh Era

(47:56) Productivity Growth vs The Fed

(54:00) The Fed's Duration Plan & The Treasury-Fed Accord

(58:06) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket