Housing Market Loses Steam, “National Buyer’s Market” Likely in 2026
On The Market
State-Level Recession Risks Could Affect Mortgage Rates
Dave reviews realtor.com data showing 22 states with recession risk and how local recessions may push mortgage rates lower.
The market is sending mixed signals, so what does that mean for buyers and sellers right now? Prices are cooling toward neutral, new listings are finally creeping up, pending sales just slipped, and days on market are the longest since 2019. We sort through the latest data so you can read your local market with clear eyes.
A government shutdown is already touching housing. With the National Flood Insurance Program paused, some coastal and riverine deals are stalling as buyers struggle to bind coverage. We explain one potential workaround by assigning an existing policy, plus how many closings could be delayed if the lapse drags on.
Zooming out, we track fresh signs of consumer strain. Subprime auto delinquencies are at a record, average car payments now top 750 dollars a month, and sentiment has split sharply between households with big stock portfolios and those without. Several states are flirting with recession risk, which could tug mortgage rates lower, while sticky inflation could keep them pinned.
In This Episode We Cover
Cooling home prices, rising days on market, and what a near-flat Case-Shiller trend means for offers and list strategy
The shutdown’s housing ripple effects, including the flood insurance lapse and an assignment tactic that may keep deals alive
Why pending sales dipped even as new listings rose, and how to negotiate in a thinner buyer pool
Auto loan stress, four-figure car payments, and what these budget pressures mean for future housing demand
A tale of two consumers, plus a state-by-state look at recession risk and how that feeds into mortgage rates
Action steps for buyers, sellers, and investors in a market that is cooling, not crashing
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-364
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