Ep. 534: The Swan Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
00:00
The Causality of History
History is written by winners, not just human winners, but by the fact that wants. This prevents us from really understanding the causality in history. You have the same thing in finance. We're good at narrating the narrative in the past; we do that now mathematically. If something is nonlinear, so many equations that could possibly explain it. So you may find an equation that explains what happened, but it may not be the right one. And each one of them would lead to a different forecast. Does what you're saying have applications to how we should think about global warming? Yes. I'm hyper-conservative ecologically. Let's leave this planet the way we got
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