How Hard Is Tokyo's Lottery?

In this episode of the Marathon Handbook Podcast, Michael Doyle, Alex Cyr, and Katelyn Tocci break down everything you need to know about the first World Marathon Major of 2026: the Tokyo Marathon.

We deliver a complete race preview — from course strategy and congestion to race-day weather, elite storylines, and bold predictions. If you’re racing Tokyo, chasing a marathon PR, or just love major marathon season, this is your full guide.

We cover race basics and how to watch live (04:37), including start times and logistics, plus just how hard it is to get into Tokyo’s infamous 2% lottery (09:00). Then we dive into a full course breakdown (12:30), race etiquette and on-course rules (17:30), and Tokyo’s unique aid stations and fueling setup (29:10). We analyze the race-day weather forecast and conditions (32:20), and explore Tokyo Marathon history and course records (35:57).

On the elite side, we break down the women’s field (41:52), including whether Sutume Kebede can three-peat (43:00), and what Sara Hall racing both Tokyo and Boston means (45:00). We debate why Tokyo still hasn’t produced a world record (48:50) before turning to the men’s field (51:52), the Japanese national record showdown (53:30), and dark horse breakout potential (56:00).

Finally, we make our official predictions for the winners (1:02:55) and close with our World Marathon Majors Power Rankings — PB edition (1:09:56), before final thoughts and how to follow the race live (1:18:30).

Topics include:

• Elite field predictions (men’s & women’s)

• Course record potential

• The Japanese national record battle

• Why Tokyo hasn’t produced a world record

• Course strategy & race-day tips

• Weather forecast analysis

• Is Tokyo secretly the fastest major?

• Could Cam Levins break the North American record?

If you’re running Tokyo, planning your next major, or gearing up for marathon season — this is your complete race preview.

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