SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged
Modeling regime shifts: ML, causality and robustness
They discuss machine learning limits, causal discovery, factor‑zoo risks and modeling non‑stationary markets.
Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Mark on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction & market check-in
02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities
04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess
07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows
10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing
13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets
15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters
21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)
31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained
41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt machine
44:51 – Inflation, asset bubbles & fiscal theory
56:45 – Machine learning, regime shifts & why trend following survives
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
