ROLLUP: Wartime Markets | Kraken Gets Fedwire | Trump vs Banks | AI vs Pentagon | NYT Says Crypto Is Dead
Bankless
Prediction Markets Spike on Geopolitics
David covers Polymarket's record volume and notable Iran-related markets and probabilities.
Ryan and David break down a week where war hit markets, and the safe-haven playbook broke down. Oil spiked, gold failed, bonds sold off, the dollar caught the flight to safety, and crypto somehow bounced right through it. Then they unpack Trump’s public pressure campaign against banks over stablecoin yield, Kraken’s historic Fedwire breakthrough, and why crypto is starting to look less like an outsider and more like part of the financial core. Plus: Anthropic vs. the Pentagon, Erik Voorhees’ private AI push with Venice, fresh Aave governance drama, ZachXBT helping catch the $46M government crypto thief, and the New York Times calling crypto dead right on schedule.
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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES
0:00 Intro
2:54 Wartime Markets: US / Israel vs Iran + Market Reaction
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2028229365440344419
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2028426099474981156
https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/2029251045885665465
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2029274787474743761
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index
12:33 Polymarket Becomes the Biggest Winner
https://x.com/PolymarketStory/status/2028863241942671865
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-march-31/?via=bankless?
https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/?via=bankless?
15:20 Pentagon vs Anthropic: AI is Military Tech
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2027958511334723716
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2027488317286351266
https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/2027626521217929683
https://x.com/ns123abc/status/2028642962196811791
https://app.ventuals.com/trade/anthropic
23:57 Kraken Gets Fedwire Access (First Crypto Bank)
https://x.com/krakenfx/status/2029206389957009419
https://x.com/SenLummis/status/2029195363119173710
https://x.com/dgt10011/status/2029241024069910558
https://bpi.com/bpi-statement-on-kraken-master-account
https://x.com/jespow/status/2029262374499434919
https://x.com/mikeippolito_/status/2029213224625963310
31:37 Trump vs Banks Over Stablecoin Yield
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2028955180650099117
https://x.com/EricTrump/status/2029309823423009211
https://x.com/coinbureau/status/2029067345055105162
https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/?via=bankless?
https://x.com/RonwHammond/status/2028960282450567547
https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2029554248883839324
40:03 Private AI + Crypto: Erik Voorhees’ Venice
https://x.com/ErikVoorhees/status/2029352394317029871
https://x.com/ErikVoorhees/status/2029387068384678014
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/venice-token
https://x.com/steipete/status/2028578713126707547
https://x.com/ErikVoorhees/status/2029399902011224272
47:30 Aave Governance Drama
https://governance.aave.com/t/aci-is-leaving-aave/24205
https://governance.aave.com/t/temp-check-aave-will-win-framework/24055/137
50:11 TradFi Moves Into Crypto (NYSE + OKX)
51:10 Million Bitcoin Milestone
https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/2028931445125706171
52:09 X Money (Elon’s Payments Wallet) & SpaceX Bitcoin Treasury
https://x.com/abskoop/status/2029088219858346446
https://x.com/dagaadit/status/2029256180644659379
54:42 ZachXBT Catches $46M Crypto Thief
https://x.com/BecauseBitcoin/status/2029585484960145866
https://x.com/zachxbt/status/2029577374057296175
https://x.com/zachxbt/status/2014685299025060154
58:13 South Korean Police Leak Crypto Wallet Seed
https://gizmodo.com/south-korean-police-lose-seized-crypto-by-posting-password-online-2000728191
1:00:33 NYTimes Says “Crypto Is Dead” Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/opinion/crypto-trump-bitcoin-clarity-genius.html
https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/2027392307050188828
1:02:10 Closing & Disclaimers
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