Ep 171. The Wars of Epic Epstein Distraction: RIP Dictator Khamanei
Disorder
Iran's military options and deterrence limits
Jane outlines Iran's degraded regional deterrents and the risks to Gulf states and shipping lanes.
Trump is clearly bored of peace. So bored. Shortly before the United States and Israel were poised to launch an attack on Iran later in the week, Israeli and American intelligence spotted, on Saturday morning local time, that the entire Iranian leadership including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei (and likely his son Mojtaba) as well as key IRGC commanders were going to meet to discuss the ongoing negotiations strategy in central Tehran. Hence, The United States and Israel therefore decided to adjust the timing of their planned attack and decapitate most of the country’s leadership.
So now, the entire Middle East is at war, Trump has practiced another regime decapitation operation without Congressional approval and Iran has rained down missiles across the Sunni Gulf and Israel killing civilians and targeting key infrastructure like airports and tourist hotels.
Jane and Jason ask why, when and how? Is this whole thing just a disorderly distraction from Trump’s appearance in the Epstein files and his desire to give Pam Bondi cover for her ongoing coverup? Jason thinks that is the primary motivation. Jane and Jason agree that Trump is unlikely to have an end game and that regime change has never worked solely via airpower and that even with a popular uprising that may now emerge, the situation could resemble Libya, which hasn’t exactly had the greatest track record since Western airpower helped a popular uprising oust Qadhafi.
As Jane and Jason try to Order the Disorder, they talk about solutions and where Europe, the UN, and regional allies could try to steer the region towards a more peaceful outcome. Critically, they discuss the issue of the lack of depth (i.e. America and Israel running out of missile interceptors) and how the political and military realms may interact to provide solutions and offramps, especially if the Gulfis and Europeans mediate. Time to head to the Omani Embassy in Geneva… that is my favourite place to be.
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Producer: George McDonagh
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Show Notes Links:
The C.I.A. Helped Pinpoint a Gathering of Iranian Leaders. Then Israel Struck: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/us/politics/cia-israel-ayatollah-compound.html
At Least Eight Killed After Iranian Missile Hits Central Israeli City:
Few will mourn leader of ‘evil’ regime Ali Khamenei, says UK defence secretary:
Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination
The U.S. and Israeli militaries are targeting Iran’s leaders—but that may only strengthen the state.: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-ayatollah-assassination-israel-us-war/?tpcc=must_read_email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%5BMust-Read%5D%20Obit%20Khamenei%20-%20022826&utm_term=iran_israel_conflict_interest_90day_emailopen
Why are the US and Israel attacking Iran? What we know so far:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-attack-iran-what-we-know-so-far
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