Was the Campaign a Miscalculation?

The Trump Administration reports it is decimating Iran's ruling regime and military capacity, claiming the war is all but won and should end soon.Others see Iran's continued strikes on key infrastructure, ships & civilians across it Gulf neighbors and worry the US is becoming stuck in another long-term Mideast quagmire.Which version is closer to reality?To address, RANE's Mideast analyst Ryan Bohl joins us for this livestream where he'll provide his latest assessment of the situation and take live audience Q&AFollow Ryan on X at @Ryan_BohlOr on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbohl#iranwar #geopolitics #oilprice 00:00 - Ryan's high-level geopolitical framing: Power rankings02:20 - Why Iran qualifies as a middle power 03:30 - U.S. historical experience04:30 - Trump's strategy misapplied to Iran05:40 - Was this a miscalculation or a planned high-risk scenario?07:10 - Realistic "declare victory & leave" outcome?08:50 - Iran's incentive to prolong economic pain10:55 - If U.S. pulls out soon, will Iran keep disrupting the Strait of Hormuz / energy flows?14:45 - Escalation to destroying Iran's own energy infrastructure16:50 - Supply disruption vs. supply destruction18:30 - Risk of tit-for-tat energy war spiraling across the Gulf19:50 - Could this war accelerate global shift away from Gulf oil?21:40 - Gulf states' adaptation23:20 - Iran's "hostage strategy"24:55 - Probability GCC states join the war26:50 - UAE's potential interest in retaking Abu Musa / Tunb islands28:40 - Limited allied involvement32:15 - If U.S. declares victory & withdraws34:50 - Requirements for truly ending the Iranian threat36:20 - Iran's post-war alignment choices 38:55 - Low probability of near-term internal uprising / regime change from within40:50 - U.S. political will remains the fragile variable43:00 - Current status of Iran's ballistic / drone capabilities45:50 - Limits of air power alone47:40 - Nuclear program assessment50:55 - Most probable next chapter55:20 - Broader economic tailwinds_____________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.