SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Optimal market mix: standalone versus tail protection
They show unconstrained optimization favors alternatives, but crisis-focused investors should overweight traditional futures.
Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 - MAN Group paper on market selection
58:36 - What investors really want from trend following
Resources discussed in this Episode:
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
