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Credit Crunch, ETFs, Oil, and Apple

Bloomberg Intelligence

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The Importance of Labor Data in a Recession

The labor data is misleading at turns because it's not like the BLS calling every business in America and saying, how many people are you? So there's a lot of statistical techniques that are used to estimate a broader conclusion from a relatively limited sample. But at turning points, you find that these modeling techniques don't work. And the other is that this economic cycle is likely to be very nonlinear. Things will look great, and then you'll have a wily, coyote moment, and things will suddenly look not very great at all.

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