Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Inside-Outside Distinction in Super Forecasting
Paul Samuelson famously joked that it's predicted nine of the last five recessions. Super forecasters are acutely aware of the wisdom of the crowd literature. They're also aware of the potential madness of the crowd. If they knew nothing else, but a good Wisdom of the crowd indicator is affected in London, bouquiards, or the latest prediction market results, they would probably want that to be their starting prediction. The stock market has some predictive power there.
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