UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe
Top Traders Unplugged
Fourth Turning ETF: Themes, Cash, Tail Hedges
Howe outlines the ETF: thematic equities, commodity exposure, cash optionality, and Kelly-criterion calibrated option tails.
Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before.
They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection.
This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now
03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works
10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?
16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat
20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error
26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change
33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals
39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history
45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate
48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges
52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
