Brier score vs Edge: contrarian investing

Felipe Montealegre is the Founder and CIO of Theia.

A liquid crypto investment fund explains why they believe the four-year token bear market is coming to an end and how they're deploying capital. Felipe explains why his team concluded 99% of crypto tokens, excluding a few SoV tokens, should be valued on discounted cash flows and how that view kept them out of certain overvalued L1s and L2s. Plus, more on positioning for what Felipe calls "the best opportunities in four years!"

In this episode, we cover:
+ Why the bear market is ending: reasonable valuations, tokenholder rights, and revenue growth
+ Understanding Edge vs. Brier scores: why being contrarian and right beats just being right
+ The real bottleneck for RWAs: the need for financially sophisticated underwriters, not more engineers

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⏱️ TIMESTAMPS

0:00 - Intro
2:00 - Who is Theia?
4:02 - AI tools accelerating research
10:37 - How Felipe’s team applies mental models to investing
18:46 - The 4-year token bear market and why it was necessary
24:15 - Tokenholder rights: What they are and why they matter
28:37 - Thoughts on Across token buyout
32:08 - Signs the token bear market is ending
35:23 - Do you believe in the four-year cycle?
39:19 - What is MetaDAO and futarchy?
49:56 - What Theia looks for in liquid token investments
56:18 - "Bear markets are where you make all your money"
58:12 - Making the case to invest in high integrity founders
1:01:14 - Real RWAs vs. narrative RWAs
1:04:40 - The real RWA bottleneck: Why we need underwriters, not engineers
1:06:35 - The investment manager of the future
1:11:28 - Why major VCs are pivoting away from crypto
1:16:57 - Brier vs Edge: Why being contrarian and right beats being right
1:21:25 - How to find edge when DeFi is full of duopolies
1:26:35 - Closing

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🔗 GUEST LINKS

► Theia and Felipe on X: https://x.com/TheiaResearch
► Theia Mental Models: https://www.latticeworkofmentalmodels.com/

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DISCLAIMER: Nothing said on The Edge Podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell tokens or securities. This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared here is financial advice. Any views expressed by hosts or guests on the show are solely their opinions. Always do your own research. DeFi Dad, Nomatic, and guests may have positions in the assets or other matters discussed in this podcast.