SI389: The Market Is Pinned, But Risk Is Growing ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged
Midterms and political incentives
Cem analyzes incentives for power retention, potential ballot-box control efforts, and market implications.
In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signal about a broader topping process. They also examine the growing influence of AI narratives, political incentives, and global tensions, not as isolated shocks but as forces building pressure within the system. The result is a discussion about how markets evolve when structure, policy, and sentiment begin to move out of sync.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Cem on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds
03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation
03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression
05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation
07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise
09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter
11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April
17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences
22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns
32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility
45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later
50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control
57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
