Ep. 382: Dissecting Duplicity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Impossible Question: How Much More to Fall?
There was this extreme fall in earnings very dramatic during the financial crisis. Is that a reasonable concern that that stays in the multiple? I don't see any reason to exclude it, because it was in response to a serious recession. How can we work out whether we have much further to fall? It's an impossible question. You expect me to answer it. This is why I like Robert Schiller. He disagrees with his idea of the best way to perhaps trade the markets. But here you have both of them knowing that you can't make the prediction. Even though they both know you can’t make the prediction, they're still going to talk about it. The notion that two
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