Ep. 428: Disruptive Innovator with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Risk of Going for It on Fourth Down
Each down and distance has an expected rate of success. Punting average is easily calculated as is punt return average. It's fairly easy to use these numbers to create a do I go for it on fourth down formula similar to the do I hit probability combinations in Blackjack. For most of us, decades spent watching football play a certain way has taught us that punting is actually the riskier choice.
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