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On today's podcast:
(1) The US sent conflicting messages about how long a war with Iran might last as Israel launched new airstrikes on Monday, with the widening conflict reverberating across the Middle East and upending energy markets.
(2) Just three days into the conflict, the Iran war has become attritional. Waves of drone attacks by the Islamic Republic are putting pressure on the defenses of the US and its partners from Bahrain to the United Arab Emirates, depleting weapons stockpiles. The outcome of the fight may depend on which side runs out of munitions first.
(3) The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military operations against Iran short, according to people familiar with the matter.
(4) Having spent a year attempting to charm and appease Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday drew a clear line in the sand: Britain will not join its closest military partner in offensive action against Iran.
(5) Oil extended gains as the US and Israel stepped up their war against Iran, while Tehran threatened a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and hit the American embassy in Riyadh with drones.
(6) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will use her economic statement on Tuesday to lament that the world is awash with uncertainty. And she’ll try not to contribute any more of it — by saying as little as possible.
(7) Emirates and Etihad Airways will resume limited operations as the carriers seek to ease some of the congestion caused by the airspace closing in the wake of the ongoing Iranian attacks.
Podcast Conversation: Polymarket Geopolitics Wagers Reach Record as Iran War Escalates
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