On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns.
00:00 Market Selloff Recap
00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike
02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions
02:27 War Headlines and Market Context
03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS
03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility
04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data
04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy
05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook
06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
