TIVP070 (Video): Microsoft (MSFT): Is Microsoft a Misunderstood AI Opportunity? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke
The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Valuation: Base and Bear Scenarios
Daniel presents models: base fair value ≈ $500 ($410 with margin of safety) and bear case near $280 under margin compression.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Microsoft — the $3 trillion incumbent whose entire investment thesis now hinges on two of the most contested questions in technology: whether AI will reinforce or quietly dismantle the software franchises that built the company, and whether the OpenAI partnership is the strategic masterstroke it appeared to be in 2023, or a relationship that is slowly turning from asset into liability.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:27 - About all major business units 00:12:05 - How LinkedIn’s business works 00:18:24 - How the cloud business keeps growing 00:21:17 - What the future plans for gaming are 00:24:49 - Why the Office products might be in danger 00:50:52 - How AI is challenging Microsoft’s software 00:55:10 - Who captures the most value from AI 01:22:46 - Whether Shawn and Daniel add MSFT to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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- World Economic Forum Interview with CEO.
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