Pro Football Focuses Expected Fantasy Points Model

In the late round draft guide, I created a chart that shows the frequency in which a running back hits a certain points per game threshold by round. For example, front half round one running backs have historically scored 16 or more PPR points per game at a 71.4% rate. This year, according to my fantasy leagues ADP data, we had Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Echler and Derek Henry in the top six. Now up those four players, none of them have hit that 16 points per game mark.