Graham Capital Research on Macro Regimes

Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series

01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends

06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions

09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure

13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers

16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks

26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes

37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk

46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort

51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities?

56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund

01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today

01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview

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