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The Incoming Recession Is A 2023 Story | David Rosenberg

Inflection Point

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The Transition Phase of the Economy

The economy has been in from the past year from making the classic transition from expansion to recession, which I think is actually starting this quarter. The business cycle is not repealed any more than mother nature has been repealed. Fed policy has by far the most powerful what economists would call explanatory variable in the equation when it comes to economic growth. In some cycles, the lags between the Fed and the real economy could be two to four quarters; in other cycles, it's four to eight quarters.

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