Hidden Risk: Low Volatility Complacency

How should investors think about risk when traditional measures like volatility fall short? David Weisburd speaks with Jeff Blazek about portfolio construction across institutions and family offices, why drawdown matters more than standard deviation, and how allocators should balance public and private markets. Jeff shares first-principles thinking on liquidity, behavioral risk, and building resilient portfolios across market cycles.

Highlights:

• Key differences between managing large institutions and smaller endowments
• Why drawdown is a more meaningful risk metric than volatility
• First principles for building an endowment-style portfolio
• The behavioral risks of over-allocating to private markets
• How liquidity enables rebalancing during periods of market stress
• Trade-offs between public and private investments
• Managing denominator effects and secondary market risks
• The role of liquid, uncorrelated diversifiers
• Why quality investing has overtaken pure value investing
• How allocators should think about AI, growth, and regime shifts

Guest Bio:

Jeff Blazek is Co-Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Strategies at Neuberger Berman, a global asset manager overseeing approximately $550 billion in assets. He has held senior investment roles across endowments, pensions, and consulting, including NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, Texas Teachers, and Cambridge Associates. Jeff brings over 25 years of experience in portfolio construction, asset allocation, and risk management across public and private markets.

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Stay Connected with Jeffrey Blazek:

LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-blazek-cfa-a0a57212

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Disclaimer:

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any investment strategy. All opinions expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not represent the views of Weisburd Capital. Participants may hold positions or have financial interests in the companies, funds, or investments discussed. Any references to specific investments are for illustrative purposes only. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Any third-party data or opinions have not been independently verified. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisors before making any investment decisions.

(0:00) Introduction (1:00) Impact of portfolio size on investment strategy and working with Britt Harris at Texas Teachers (3:01) Principles for building an endowment-like portfolio and defining risk tolerance (5:41) Understanding risk: Drawdown vs. standard deviation and stock market implications (8:48) Hidden risks in investment portfolios (10:19) Assumptions about volatility and endowments' role in venture capital (15:09) Multi-asset investing and managing public and private assets at Neuberger Berman (19:20) Volatility laundering, second-order effects, and risk of ruin (22:25) Ideal portfolio allocation strategies for unconstrained investors (25:47) Adjusting private and public equity allocations and implementing an 80/20 portfolio (33:24) Behavioral aspects of portfolio allocation and current asset class valuations (38:50) Fixed income vs. private credit and the evolution of investment philosophy (42:44) Staying cutting-edge and understanding market dynamics through bottom-up analysis (46:44) AI's impact on stock market pricing and future economic growth (48:59) Timeless career advice and comparing career paths (51:05) Closing remarks