We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It
Excess Returns
Intro
Hosts introduce Brent Kochuba and frame the episode as the monthly OPEX Effect discussion on options-driven flows.
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.
Guest Links
Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma
SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/
Topics Covered
Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention
How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks
Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors
How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves
Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility
What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500
Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters
How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows
Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion
What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk
Timestamps
00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows
00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?
05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing
09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors
13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?
16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market
20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility
23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy
28:07 The market rally into May expiration
33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk
36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup
40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech
44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500
49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon
51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE
54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume
57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion
59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations
01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging
01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion
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