A Liquidity Masterclass: Preparing For A Credit Cycle Downturn | Darius Dale
Inflection Point
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The Eurodolic Futures Curve
The bond market knows more than anyone else with the exception of short term money markets. The Eurodolic Futures curve went from basically pushing all the rate hot rate cuts into 2024 to pulling them back into 2023. We actually priced in a rate cut in Q2, but that's now been eradicated as the height of the banking pandemic has subsided. I think we're probably going to get one more 25 in May, because I don't think the data is fast enough to make the Fed back off. But by the time you get into the second half of the year, I think it'll be very clear how much deceleration there will be and what kind of change
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