Cruz Eats Crow on Prediction

1. Major Mexican Cartel Leader Killed CHECK OUT the STORY

• Mexican forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
• His death triggered violent retaliation across multiple Mexican states, including burning vehicles, airport panic, suspended public transportation, and regional shutdowns.
• The U.S. issued shelter‑in‑place warnings for American travelers in affected areas.
• Violence may increasingly target American tourists, especially during spring break.
• Commentary emphasizes Mexico’s struggle with cartel control and the U.S. pushing Mexico to take stronger action.

2. U.S.–Mexico Relations and Trump Administration Pressure CHECK OUT the STORY

• Mexico’s action was a response to pressure from President Trump, who warned of U.S. strikes on cartel targets.
• Broader theme: Trump administration aims to deter cartels, reduce drug trafficking, human smuggling, and violent crime.
• Noted drops in national murder rates (~20%) and drug overdose deaths (~20%), attributed to tougher border and anti‑cartel policies.
• Commentary mocks media for ignoring or downplaying these improvements.

3. Advice for Americans in Mexico

• For those currently in Mexico, the guidance is:
  • Check State Department travel advisories.
  • Follow regional safety updates closely.
  • Contact U.S. government resources if in danger.
• Hosts recommend being extremely cautious about spring break travel during escalating cartel unrest.

4. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariff Approach

• Supreme Court decision ruled that one specific statute (IEEPA) does not authorize the tariff method Trump used.
• Majority opinion written by Chief Justice John Roberts; the prediction on the podcast had expected the opposite outcome.
• However, the ruling does not prevent Trump from imposing tariffs — it simply means he must rely on other statutes.
• The conversation outlines multiple other laws Trump can still use:
  • Trade Act of 1974 (Sections 122, 301)
  • Smoot-Hawley (Section 338)
  • Trade Expansion Act (Section 232)
  • Trade Act Safeguards (Section 201)
• Expectation: tariffs will continue, though implemented via different legal pathways.

4. Political Reaction to the Tariff Ruling

• China and U.S. Democrats were reportedly celebrating the ruling.
• Democrats oppose tariffs mainly to politically hurt Trump, not on principle.
• Expect ongoing litigation from companies seeking refunds from past tariffs—potentially costing billions.

6. Upcoming State of the Union

• Suggestion that Trump should focus the State of the Union on:
  • Lower crime rates
  • Lower drug overdose deaths
  • “America First” accomplishments
• Acknowledged cartel takedowns but also keeping the focus on domestic well-being.

7. Olympic Highlights — USA Beats Canada in Men’s Hockey

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• Big national pride moment: USA wins gold in men’s hockey against Canada in overtime.
• Follows U.S. women also beating Canada in the finals.
• Jack Hughes (NHL player, Team USA) celebrated passionately about playing for the country.

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