They used Coinbase as a real-time example of why short-term trades can be dangerous, especially around earnings.
The setup looked bearish: crypto was in a down cycle, other platforms like Robinhood had already shown crypto revenue weakness, Coinbase depends heavily on crypto (with a big chunk tied to Bitcoin), and Coinbase’s earnings came in with misses plus weak guidance and even analyst downgrades. A short-dated put seemed logical.
But after-hours price action flipped the script. Despite all the “bad news,” Coinbase popped hard, likely from institutional buying and a short squeeze, and the put got crushed because options traders can’t adjust positions after 4pm. The lesson: even when you’re “right” on the fundamentals, short-term options can still lose because momentum, squeezes, and liquidity hunts can override logic.
Their takeaway: if you insist on trading puts, give yourself more time (they suggested roughly 1 month, maybe up to 6 weeks), avoid tight stops, and account for volatility so you don’t get wicked out.
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