2025 evidence that returning production lost predictive power

Returning production has long been one of the most trusted metrics in college football—but the 2025 College Football Playoff may have just blown that up.

The national champion ranked 38th in returning production. Clemson was No. 1 and went 7-6. Miami ranked 60th and played for the title.

So what changed?

In the transfer portal era, it’s no longer about what you return—it’s about what you add. We break down what the data shows, why this shift is happening, and what it means for LSU heading into 2026 with a low returning production ranking.

Should Tigers fans be concerned… or is this actually a sign of a new model for winning?

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