Bitcoin Seasons Framework Explained

Global markets are navigating a high stakes tug of war today. Following an address to the nation where President Trump signaled harder strikes against Iran, reports have surfaced that Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices have retreated from their session highs, the crypto sector remains under stress, with Bitcoin trading at $66-67K dollars.

Joining Jeremy Szafron to break down this volatility is Michael Terpin, founder and CEO of Transform Ventures and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. A digital asset pioneer since 2012, Terpin explains why he believes we are currently in the "Fall Phase" of the cycle, a period characterized by retail panic and a potential capitulation event coming this October.

In this deep dive, Terpin reveals his price targets for the current correction, the behavior of Satoshi era whales, and why Michael Saylor is on a path to owning 2.1 million Bitcoin. We also explore the macro "debasement trade" where gold typically leads the market before Bitcoin follows, and how the convergence of AI, robotics, and crypto will fundamentally change the global economy.

Recorded April 2 2026

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Timestamps: 
00:00 Market Shock Overview: Trump, Iran, and the Oman protocol. 
00:57 Meet Michael Terpin: Intro to the founder of Transform Ventures. 
02:05 Bitcoin Seasons Framework: Understanding fear and greed in the market cycle. 
04:00 Buy Signals and Price Targets: Why Terpin is eyeing the 40,000 to 55,000 range. 
05:26 ETFs and Treasury Buyers: Analysis of retail outflows and Michael Saylor’s strategy. 
09:47 Sovereigns and Venture Sentiment: Strategic reserves and the age of the voter. 
11:24 Supply Shock and Next Bull Run: When to expect the "Rocket Ship" summer. 
12:50 Where Venture Is Heading: Stablecoin plays and the barbell investment strategy. 
15:38 Midterm Crashes and Deleveraging: How the Satoshi program impacts cycle timing. 
18:06 Quantum Computing Risk: Responding to Google’s latest AI cryptography reports. 
19:35 Debt Cycles and CBDCs: Why the debasement trade favors gold first. 
23:21 Stablecoins as Global Money: From liquidity tools to third world savings accounts. 
25:09 AI Disruption and Supercycle: A preview of Pandora’s Blocks and AI agent commerce. 
28:45 Final Advice and Wrap Up
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Disclaimer:  
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.

Disclaimer:  
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.