Geopolitics vs. Fed: Competing Forces

Stijn Schmitz your host welcomes Gary Wagnar to the show. Gary Wagnar is Executive Producer of TheGoldForecast.com. In this detailed discussion about gold markets, Wagnar provides a comprehensive technical analysis of current gold trading conditions, highlighting significant market movements and potential future trajectories. Currently, gold is experiencing notable volatility, with prices dropping below $5,000 per ounce.

Gary emphasizes the importance of the 50-day moving average as a critical technical indicator, noting that breaking below this level suggests a potential pivot from a bullish to a bearish market trend. He attributes the recent price decline primarily to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain current interest rates, which has dampened gold’s performance. Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Wagnar remains cautiously optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects. He points out that gold has still gained 16% over the past year, which is a significant performance compared to other commodities.

The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential inflationary pressures from rising oil prices could provide future support for gold prices. Wagnar also discusses his technical analysis approach, particularly his preference for Japanese candlestick charting, which he believes offers superior visual insights into price movements compared to traditional Western bar charts. He uses Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support and resistance points, currently suggesting that gold could find support around $4,677 if the current downward trend continues.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:45 – Market Volatility Overview
00:01:00 – Compelling Trading Setups
00:01:07 – Gold Technical Breakdown
00:01:43 – Geopolitical Conflict Impacts
00:02:40 – Federal Reserve Influence
00:04:51 – Gold Yearly Performance
00:05:30 – Miners Disparity Analysis
00:10:06 – Bull Market Cycle Position
00:10:15 – Candlestick Chart Techniques
00:27:19 – Long-Term Bull Outlook
00:33:39 – Oil Spike Inflation
00:37:23 – Silver Market Leverage
00:45:44 – Guest Service Details
00:53:36 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://thegoldforecast.com
X: https://x.com/TheGoldForecast

Gary S. Wagner is the executive producer of TheGoldForecast.com – a daily video newsletter covering precious metals. He has been a technical market analyst for over 35 years.

Since 2010 he has been a regular analyst for Kitco News, where he authors daily commentary “Hawaii 6-O”. He has written for Stocks & Commodities Magazine, Futures Magazine, Street, and Barons. He has been a speaker for many financial seminars like Dow Jones Financial Symposium or Futures West.

Gary S. Wagner coauthored a book “Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting” a John Wiley publication. He also co-developed a software application for market forecasting called the “Candlestick Forecaster”. Considered as one of the first computer programs to recognize and identify Candlestick patterns. He was mentored by many great technical analysts like John Bollinger and Larry Williams.