SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Top Traders Unplugged
Risk Premia Myth and Index Replication
Andrew warns against labeling trend as risk premia and stresses manager and implementation differences.
Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
