US economy versus stock market expectations

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham unpack a strong week for the portfolio, led by commodities, emerging markets and continued European resilience.

While the US debates tariffs and policy direction, global equity markets are pushing higher. Mining stocks surge, crypto stabilises, emerging markets extend gains, and the team ask whether the long-anticipated rotation away from US mega caps is finally accelerating?

This Week’s Highlights:

📊 Portfolio Gains Momentum

A strong week driven by commodities and emerging markets exposure.

⛏️ Mining Leads the Charge

BlackRock World Mining Trust hits fresh highs as metals rally.

🌍 Emerging Markets Break Higher

Korea climbs the global rankings and EM exposure continues to pay off.

🇺🇸 US vs The Rest of the World

Is money finally rotating away from US mega caps into global markets?

🏦 Private Equity Pressure

Are private market valuations finally being tested?

🧠 Investor Psychology

When a position is down 50%, what should you actually do?

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 28:

Weekly performance: +1.4%

Total return since inception: +18.7%

Top Performers

🥇 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: +6.7%

🥈 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +4.0%

🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +3.4%

Underperformers

📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –1.4%

📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: –0.6%

📉 Xtrackers DAX ETF: –0.5%

Portfolio Positioning:

The portfolio remains positioned toward:

• Commodities (mining, copper)

• Emerging markets

• European equities

• US small & mid-caps (rather than mega-cap tech)

Cash and short-dated gilts remain in place as stability anchors (~20% combined). The team continue to emphasise geographic diversification away from heavy US concentration, particularly given global indices remain ~60–70% US weighted.

Big Themes This Week:

• Commodity strength returning

• Early signs of global equity rotation

• Private equity valuations under scrutiny

• Dividend yield traps explained

• The importance of taking action on losing positions

The central question: If institutions are underweight Europe and emerging markets, does the rotation still have further to run?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why high dividend yields can be a red flag

✔️ The difference between the “rabbit”, “assassin” and “hunter” investor

✔️ Why US economic strength doesn’t automatically mean US stock market outperformance

✔️ How money flows drive market leadership

✔️ Why compounding early (JISAs) matters more than market timing

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.com

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Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

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