China, AI, sand — and a 10% chance of UFOs?
Jake and Jon are joined by economist and public intellectual Tyler Cowen for a wide-ranging conversation about the structural forces reshaping geopolitics and the balance of power. From the rivalry between China and the United States to the unglamorous constraints of supply chains, they step back from the headlines to ask what will actually define the long game. Together, they take on a series of core questions:
- China: What does China actually want? Are the U.S. and China headed for decisive conflict — or a long stalemate over Taiwan and the balance of power in Asia?
- AI: Is the AI “race” winner-take-all? How much does being first at the frontier matter — and would any U.S. edge be durable or just a temporary window?
- Supply Chains & State Capacity: Can America realistically build resilience in critical inputs, from rare earths to sand? And does the U.S. government still have the institutional capacity to execute in an era of rapid change?
- UAPs: How seriously should we take unexplained aerial phenomena — and what does it mean to assign a non-zero probability to extraterrestrial explanations without sliding into conspiracy?
The episode closes with Cowen in the hot seat for his signature overrated/underrated rapid-fire questions covering a broad sweep of topics.
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